As researchers describe, these extra savings are “a substantial increase but by no means a thick security blanket for low-income families.” While these increased savings are not sufficient to eliminate the poverty our economic institutions create, they have afforded families a financial cushion to help weather this pandemic and recovery. This is true for families at all income levels, but especially so for low-income families and those with children receiving the ARP’s Child Tax Credit (CTC). In September 2021, families’ c ash balances were between 40 and 70 percent higher than they were pre-pandemic. Because of the American Rescue Plan and other investments, the bottom 50 percent of households now have more than $3 trillion in wealth-that’s up nearly 20 percent from early 2021, and up 63 percent from pre-pandemic levels. Multiple sources find that around the bottom 70 percent of workers had real hourly wage increases over the past two years.Īnother achievement: Families are now more economically secure. This is still true when you account for the effects of inflation. Workers with a high-school education and those at the bottom of the income distribution all saw wage growth stronger than average for recovery periods. Using the Atlanta Fed’s Wage Growth Tracker, we see younger workers (16-24 years old) saw a 9.7 percent wage increase, and the bottom 25 percent of earners saw a 5.1 percent raise. Wages are increasing for those who’ve historically been left behind during past recoveries. Exact comparisons are tough, but we can clock this recovery, as Niskanen Center’s Matt Darling does, at eight times the speed of the Great Recession. You may not realize this from the media coverage, because these numbers have been revised up 976,000 jobs throughout the year versus their initial reporting. Even as the Delta variant raged, the US added an average of 405,000 jobs a month from August to November 2021. For comparison, that eclipses monthly job growth after the Great Recession, which averaged just 130,000 jobs a month from 2010 to 2011. Through November, the US has added an average of 555,000 jobs per month, for a total of 6.1 million new jobs in 2021. The first success is the number of jobs created. Second, we can compare these to what we avoided - all the projections that were beaten as a result of the ARP. The first is to look at the strong headline numbers across many parts of the economy. These successes far exceed the straightforward goal of the ARP, which was, as Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen testified in March 2021, “With the passage of the Rescue Plan we may see a return to full employment next year.” We can see this in two ways. Yet the economic conditions we face are also better than what anyone expected at the beginning of this year. These are important concerns that need policy responses. Mothers and other caregivers are still juggling unsustainable workloads. This disproportionately burdens Black and brown communities who, because of the legacy of racist economic institutions and practices, generally have an unemployment rate double that of white communities. We are still millions of jobs away from where we would be at full employment. Due in large part to COVID-induced disruptions and supply chain pressures, inflation has turned out to be higher than anyone had forecasted. That’s not to downplay the serious challenges that still exist in this recovery.
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